That map is ridiculous. Arizona leaning Democrat. Texas a toss up. No way.
Basically it boils down to this for me. If Trump takes one of Penn or Mich he will win the WH. I think he has a better shot at Penn as long as the Philadelphia area polling districts are monitored properly
Try it. Click on AZ, make it red....
...give him every single swing state & Pennsylvania.... then he wins.
...itโs 50/50, but letโs say 70% GOP wins each swing state & PA....
70% x70% x 70%... 7 times... plus u gotta say 90% he gets both TX& AZ...
Thatโs 70% ^ 7= ~8%... x 90%.... 7.5%
Problem isnโt probability of each state... gotta win them all is problem...
...donโt actually agrees swing states GOP 70% chance to win each state... then goes down to less than 1%...
Play w map, click on each state...change Dem to Rep, Toss up to Rep... just donโt think Trump gonna win enuf 2 get 270...
Both Michigan & PA... improbable... but even then, lose any other big swing state... still lose...
Just math... donโt blame map... itโs reflecting polls... change Colors & see how hard it is... ask yrslf why he should win every close race...